87 million people in sub-Saharan Africa may not have access to electricity, despite being counted as such

Research published today in Nature Energy by an international team led by the University of Oxford, compares data from two key agencies tracking progress towards SDG7 on energy and finds that their estimates differ for at least 87 million individuals. This represents almost half (45%) of total reported progress towards electrification in the region.

The discrepancy is due in large part to widely varying interpretations in what counts as access. "If a village has a transformer, everyone in the village may be counted as having access to electricity – even if there is no physical connection to their home," explains Associate Professor Stephanie Hirmer, a lead author from the Energy and Power Group in the Department of Engineering Science and member of the Climate Compatible Growth programme which funded the project. 

"We need an agreed standard of what ‘counts’ as access to electricity that can be updated over time to reflect the reality on the ground", she adds. "As a first step, agencies could provide explicit metadata documenting access definitions. Without these changes, the international community can’t track progress in a meaningful way: we’re left in the dark in more ways than one."

The authors add that while energy access is therefore uncertain for this group and may be overreported, these statistics are often taken at face value and used to guide significant policy decisions. "These data discrepancies have deep implications for addressing the electrification challenge," says Associate Professor Julia Tomei, a lead author from University College London. "In Togo for example, if policy makers used the World Bank data, they might stick with their current policy mix for electricity access – since the numbers look very positive. But if they used IEA data instead, which show a decline in access, they might choose a very different electrification strategy."

The authors conclude that it’s now crucial to look more critically at the data and ensure it is accurately reflecting realities on the ground in order to continue making progress towards SDG7: 'ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all'.

The research team is part of the Climate Compatible Growth (CCG) programme, and brings together researchers from the Department of Engineering Science and Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University College London, University of Wuppertal, Imperial College London, Technical University of Munich and KTH Royal Institute of Technology.

Inconsistent measurement calls into question progress on electrification in sub-Saharan Africa is published in Nature Energy. The work was funded by the Climate Compatible Growth Programme.