28 Mar 2025
Green hydrogen and ammonia could power India’s low-carbon future, study shows
A new study has revealed how green hydrogen and ammonia could play a pivotal role in decarbonising India’s economy, while also establishing the country as a global leader in sustainable energy, agriculture, and industry.
India has one of the most ambitious hydrogen programmes in the world, and is projected to require over 1,500 terawatt-hours per year of electricity for hydrogen and ammonia production by 2050 - nearly a quarter of its total projected electricity demand.
A new study, published recently in Energy Storage and Applications, explores the potential for India to use domestically-produced green hydrogen and ammonia to supply this need, and in the process reduce its greenhouse gas emissions, enhance energy security, and support new green export industries in steel and maritime fuel.
The study was led by researchers at Oxford’s Department of Engineering Science in collaboration with the Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment and the Institute for New Economic Thinking at the University of Oxford, and the Technical University of Denmark.
The team modelled an ambitious future scenario in which India decarbonises its national electricity grid and half of its steel and fertiliser sectors by mid-century. Their analysis found that such a transformation - powered by renewable energy and underpinned by green hydrogen and ammonia - could reduce the need for expensive long-term energy storage and provide resilience against weather variations.
Applying novel methodological approaches to state-of-the-art Energy System Models (ESMs) to better capture the risks and opportunities associated with the transformational changes proposed for India’s energy system, the researchers found that the proposed scale of integration could not only reduce emissions but also avoid tens of billions of US dollars in ammonia and fossil fuel imports each year.
“Our study shows that India stands to gain significantly from an integrated green hydrogen and ammonia strategy,” said Professor René Bañares-Alcántara. “It offers a rare win-win: deep decarbonisation combined with economic and industrial opportunity.”
Achieving such benefits requires a dramatic, but achievable, increase in the deployment of renewables in India. The study also cautions that the success of such a strategy depends on global collaboration. If the rest of the world does not keep pace with India’s investment in renewables and clean energy technologies, the cost of green hydrogen and ammonia could remain high. However, even in that scenario, the analysis shows green hydrogen would remain cost-competitive with fossil-based alternatives.
On the other hand, if global deployment of renewables and storage technologies continues to accelerate, driving down the cost, India could achieve a 10–25% reduction in the levelised cost of green hydrogen and ammonia. The researchers conclude that such an outcome could not only enable India to meet its climate goals affordably, but also position it as a global leader in green shipping fuels, sustainable agriculture, and low-carbon steel - transforming both domestic and international energy markets in the process.
The research was funded by the Oxford Martin School Post-Carbon Transitions Programme and the Economics of Energy Innovation and System Transition (EEIST) programme.
